Robinhood's original problem
In 2013, Robinhood solved a real problem. Stock trade commissions were annoying. Robinhood made them free. What Robinhood also did was sell that order flow to Citadel and Virtu, who paid to see what retail investors were buying before orders hit the open market.
Your trade was free.ย Your order flow was worth $2.6 billion to them in 2021.
The SEC published a formal review in 2022, proposed rules in 2023, and is still finalizing them today, because that is how fast the SEC moves when something is very profitable and also somewhat uncomfortable.
๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฒ ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐๐ผ๐น๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฎ ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ณ๐ณ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ๐บ.
Your AI cost structure changes every time Anthropic or OpenAI adjusts pricing, which is constantly, and the shirt-costs-$40-Stripe-takes-2.9% formula was not designed for cost of goods that change on a Tuesday because a competitor had a board meeting.
Token billing fixes that.
Good. Celebrate it.
๐ก๐ผ๐ ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ผ๐ ๐ด๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฝ๐ผ๐๐๐ถ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ.
Stripe knows what every model charges, live. It knows your target margin. It knows what every customer consumes, by cohort, by week. It knows this for every AI startup on the platform. The solution to your opacity: ๐๐ฒ๐น๐น ๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ด. Permanently.
The billing layer is not the alarming part.
Stripe's AI gateway routes inference and bills in one API call. Today: pick a model. Tomorrow: "route to the model that optimizes your margin across twelve providers in real time." ๐ฃ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐ ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐บ. They have the data
Come on.
The moment that engine turns on, OpenAI and Anthropic stop competing with each other. They start competing to be recommended by Stripe.
On criteria Stripe sets, using data no individual provider can see. Sam Altman, who has historically been very relaxed about not controlling competitive terms in his own market, is going to find this thrilling.
The NYSE had this structure. One entity at the center of all order flow, indispensable to price discovery, on criteria nobody else could observe.
The SEC expressed concerns in 1994. Then 1996. Then 2001. Reform came in 2005. From first concern to structural reform: approximately forty years. We are on year zero of this one.
Bloomberg Terminal launched in 1982. Did not build the companies. Built the scoreboard. Once the scoreboard became the standard, everyone who needed to play had to pay the scorekeeper. $24,000 a seat per year.
๐ฆ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฝ๐ฒ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฏ๐๐ถ๐น๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐น๐ผ๐ผ๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ด ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐๐ ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐ผ๐บ๐ถ๐ฐ๐.
Visa didn't ask for merchant transaction data. Merchants gave it starting in 1958 because customers wanted to pay by card. Visa now processes $15 trillion annually.
The merchants solved their problem. They also, without quite meaning to, became the founding employees of the most valuable financial data operation in human history.
Stripe is running the same play.
The billing problem is solved.
Enjoy that.